Wednesday, March 16, 2016
If it's not Trump, tragically, it's Hillary
I wanted Cruz to be the nominee. I truly believe—and the electoral math seems to bear this out—that it's factual to say that if it hadn't been for Marco Rubio and John Kasich, the establishment vote would have gone for Cruz—even though they really hate Cruz—putting him ahead of Trump at this point in the primaries. Rubio has now dropped out, taking his 168 delegates with him. Kasich may stay in, but only because he's hoping for a brokered convention.
Ask yourself this simple question...Of the 168 delegates that Rubio won, and the 138 delegates that Kasich won, how many would now be Cruz delegates had Rubio and Kasich not been running? How many Rubio and Kasich voters would have gone for Trump over Cruz? I'm thinking not too many and closer to none. But that didn't happen. So today, we're left with three. Kasich who'll continue to take away Cruz votes, and ensure that The Donald will remain the leader in delegates all the way to the brokered convention.
Yet, as it stands, I don't see the Donald getting the magical "1237." Trump is going to win more delegates than the other candidates, but he won't get to 1237. If there's a brokered convention, Trump WILL NOT BE the Republican nominee. The leader—Donald Trump—will not thank that this outcome is fair, because he won more delegates than the other candidates. He will believe that the GOP should nominate him as the Republican Presidential candidate because he won. However the GOP will not nominate him—and by the way I have no clue who'll they will end up nominating—it could be anybody from Ted Cruz to John Kasich to Jeb Bush to Mitt dive taking Romney! The threatened brokered convention will make up the rules as they go and so predictions at this time are pointless. One thing that can be predicted—in fact it's practically guaranteed—is that if the front running Trump is not picked as the nominee—and in a brokered convention he won't be picked—is that Donald Trump will think he's not being treated fairly.